Sensex on 26-nov-2010

Sensex slide from the height of Nov 1st week is non-stop, steep.
Ichimoku longterm chart also confirms now the bearishness, which would revert only on emerging convincingly above the Kumo. TS below KS, both hooking down into cloud. Cloud tendency to turnover,
price opening below the cloud, finding difficulty at cloud bottom attemp, falling and closing below the cloud,
The shortterm ichimoku is fully bearish with all indicators deep in red interpretation.

From the TrendChannel and Lines perception, the RedChannel bottom is still a support.

From the EMA perspective, Sensex opened at 100day EMA, has fallen low and bounced from the 144day EMA, on higher side found resistance at 89day EMA and closed in between.
The support would be the 144EMA and after that the major 200day EMA.

20day EMA is declining towards 50day EMA, but yet to cross, and when crossed it would imply intermediate bearishness confirmation.

Oscillators - Williams continues to be in OverBought zone, and such extended stay would only confirm the bearishness trend.
ATR shows greater volatility.

The major chances are a fall to the 200day EMA, which is at 18394 now,
where Sensex may bounce back.

The Advance Decline Ratio of Sensex today is 1 : 4

FII Selling continues. And bad news and sentiments continues, from the market perspective.
The intraday recovery was lost at end of day.
HA candles exhibit the trend very clearly continuously negative. The candle tops are clean shaven eversince the drop started.

Sensex for 26-nov-2010

Sensex is resting on 100day EMA,
The blue channel is breached downwards.
The next support may be 144 day EMA, if Sensex fails to pull back from 100day EMA.
5day EMA has already crossed below 20dayEMA a week back,
now 20day EMA is approaching the 50day EMA ...
13day EMA has crossed below 34day EMA. These are bearish notations.

The Longterm ichimoku,
Price is resting on cloud bottom,
Cloud bottom may be a support, and cloud top resistance.
TS below KS, TS into cloud, CS continues below PA, KS hooking down, all bearish confirmation.

The Shortterm ichimoku,
All the indications are bearish,
The price may get resisted at cloud bottom.

Fibonacci Retracement of Sensex
shows Sensex may be supported at 19138 breaking which it can fall to 18528 17917.
The trendline is broken downwards for now, though there can be a pull back above it.

FII Selling
The net FII transaction is negative, into selling of 1208 crores.
It adds to pullout of liquidity and to negative sentiments.

BSE Advance Decline
The Overall A/D is 743 / 2203,
Except Z category, all groups are into negative, the A group in 1:5 negative ratio.

mmm ... something sounds hollow in the picture.... ... ... time to be cautious

Sensex at beginning of 19-nov-2010
The Support level has held Sensex, it forming a doji of indecision. Today it would be to watch if it bounces up from the Cyan support line of 19984 or falls to the bottom of blue channel.
The cloud top has supported in the longterm chart, though TS and KS have folded down and CS is way below the PA. The broadening cloud shows positive strength.
But in shortterm the weakness has set in with price, CS & TS below the cloud. Thinner cloud, hooking down KS above TS, CS below the price, sideways cloud with twisting spans. It looks volatility controls the shortterm.
The EMA support at 55ema is holding.

For 12.nov.2010 Sensex
The momentum has moved to neutral in the shortterm, but the overall perspect remains positive, with all the supports still moving up.
The retracements & extension levels are given.

Sensex daily chart for 9-nov-2010

Sensex supports are at 20301 19833.
The MediumTerm and LongTerm trends are bullish.
The Ichimoku and Moving Averages exhibit this positiveness.