Sensex for 27-6-2011

Sensex

bounced from the trend channel that we follow for a while now.
And is moving towards the pink upward longterm channel.
The EMA support was at 610days EMA.
The move will be towards 50ema and 200ema.

Ichimoku medium term
has turned negative with the kumo turnover.
The resistance would be mostly at 18295 18420 18520 18565 18730.
The bearish TS below KS is changing with both turning sideways,
but the bearishness remains, since all indicators and price are below the bearish cloud.
Shortterm parameters
are losing momentum, and is thinner.
One need to watch if this big candle move will sustain.

ATR is moving to more volatile.
Williams is about to enter the OB.
EMAs are yet to respond to the price move.
Sensex is below the converging longterm triangle.

Only when Sensex firmly closes above the 200ema and the cloud for a couple of days can one be sure of the change in trend.

EMA Barometer on Nifty

The longer term EMAs come into play when market moves below the 200day EMA barrier, and when death-cross of 50ema falling below 200ema happens.

It denotes that the shortterm average has lower valued moves, and the earlier terms had higher ranges, which keeps the longer term EMAs above the shorter term EMAs.
(The same applies to SMAs too.
The SMAs have uniform spread representation. The EMAs represent more recent data, giving higher weightage to the latest data.)

Here as we had looked into earlier, the 300ema 400ema and 500ema came into play.
500ema gave the fulcrum for Nifty to hold and swing up.
Earlier 600ema formed the support to Monday low.

Now Nifty is resting below the 300,
Till Nifty remains below 200ema, its weak.
Between 200ema and 200sma, Nifty would be recovering.
Below 200ema till 300ema it is sideways.
Below 300ema upto 400ema, losing momentum.
Below 400ema negative.

Nifty and market will show us when where how and what.
This is a Saturday morning lighter thought.

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EMA NIFTY Health Barometer (or Thermometer, if you like it that way)

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The zones of Nifty and Sensex

Retracting from 200day EMA.
Declining histograms of MACD and signal line.
Is it a consolidation before a push , or
is it a withdrawal from a fortified resistance ?
We shall look for this resolution.
Sensex Daily Chart :

Nifty Index Daily Chart :

Sensex for 1-6-2011

Sensex closed above 300ema, 20ema, 13ema, and is firmly settled for now in the trend lines triangle.
It was resisted at 233ema and 34ema.
Shorter averages have started flattening out, and shortest ones are looking up.
Longer averages gradual gradient is maintained.
Oscillator is at -23, at the threshold of entering the OB.
ATR, after contiunuous fall, has started moving up.
200ema is at 18601, 200sma at 18708 - these are future resistances.

Ichimoku short parameters -
Cloud falling and turning in future.
TS cross above KS, PA above both, but all below the cloud.
Makes 18622 18894 levels resistances to be crossed in shortterm positivity, in the negative picture.

Medium term parameters -
Cloud forms flat bottom of resistance, while PA has settled above TS, and facing cloud bottom 18527.
KS in cloud may be held at bottomspan.
CS moving rapidly through thick cloud.
It is mild positivity in the negative scenerio, in midterm.

Sensex for 30-5-2011

Sensex last week's bottom rested at 400ema, and bounces back to close marginally above 300ema.
More important, it has entered back into the triangle that is constricting, but the candle is across the line, and not yet clear of it.
A new bearish cross of 34ema / 233ema has occurred,
but the strong 2days move has managed to get the shorter term moving averages upto 100ema  to turn sideways.
The medium and long term EMAs are already horizontal.

The oscillator has turned firmly out of the OS.
ATR has fallen steadily past 10+days, and is sideways on Friday.

Ichimoku - Short parameters -
Cloud is falling, turning in future for a possible cross. Present resistance would remain 18654, 18905.
CS turning up. PA after clearing TS, closed at KS.
KS sideways, with TS below it, closing.
This is a positive move in the overall negative presence.

Ichimoku - Medium parameters -
The cloud is flat and succulant, holding the sideways KS.
PA has moved above TS, the resistances in medium term would remain 18569, 19047.
CS turn has taken it into kumo.
A positive move, again in the negative presence.

In both terms the earlier lookup of confirmed positive trend only with action above cloud remains.

EOD Sensex 27-5-2011

Sensex was resisted at 300dEMA,
Closes below it.
The pivot is followed by the running candles.
Next week it would negitiate the 300dEMA.
The past two days adds some rising trend amidst the falling pattern.
Weekend post may find ichimoku Sensex included.

Sensex for 26-5-2011

Expiry day, in a negative trend.
Ichimoku indicators are all in bearishness in both short and medium parameters, with relief only after Sensex reaches and remains above the cloud.

When it hit this year's low, it had  recovered by 400EMA,
From then, the EMA levels have moved up, though marginally.
Sensex may attempt a recovery between 400EMA and 500EMA.

MACD and RSI are in indecisive phase.
Stoch is stuck in oversold. It would make meaningful indication only when moving above 20.

Sensex - for 25-5-2011

A deathcross about to happen if 50ema falls below 200ema.
The supports and resistances are marked on the charts based on various parameters.
Another channel is broken when Sensex closed yesterday breaking down the magenta line.
Today the support came at 377ema, while resistance was at 78% retracements.
Sensex could not cross the 5ema,

Ichimoku in all parameters and indications is in negative direction.
As pointed from last week, the positive trend can be confirmed only on a firm trading above the cloud.

Sensex for 18-5-2011

Sensex
The longterm channel line which supported earlier at 17298 and then at 17414 has supported now at 18047.
Its also in the range of 78% Fibonacci Retracement.
There can be a technical bounce,
or, if breaks the magenta channel, then next support is at
17881 ema 377day
17788 ema 400day.
The shortterm EMAs are inclined down,
The longerterm EMAs which are sideways, are showing a very marginal incline downwards.
ATR is rising, indicating increasing volatility.
Oscillator is dipping further into oversold sump.

Ichimoku -
Short term parameters -
All the indications continue to strengthen the bearish tone.
Medium term parameters -
KS has fallen into the cloud,
CS has fallen below the cloud.
This strengthens medium term negativity, which will stand reversed
when points break above the cloud,
that is, it will have both the cloud boundaries to negotiate.

Market views -
FII turnover is in Red by - 487 crores.

Sensex for 12-5-2011

Sensex traded in a narrow range, with lesser volumes.
It has formed an inside narrowrange day.
This would spring out mostly tomorrow.
Yesterday the 200ema had resisted.
It would be the immediate resistance now at 18665.
Then the 13ema at 18728
Close is almost at / above 233ema [18530] which may support.
Longer term EMAs are in a positive turn.
Shorter term EMAs are falling.
Williams has flattened at -72.
ATR is falling, at 293 showing reducing volatility.

If 200ema is cleared, a series of EMA bunches up at 18840 range.

If 200ema is crossed, it will set a sentiment positive.

Ichimoku -

Short term parameters -

The future cloud is twisting and falling before turning sideways.

The PA is above TS, below KS, TS is below KS, and all are below cloud.

The price would have supporting TS that travels along, and resisting KS at 18854 and cloud above that.

Short term indication is negative, with sideways move in negative zone.

Medium Term parameters -

Price is caught in the cloud, which is mildly bearish.

The cloud top will offer resistance.

Intraday, the entry into cloud at hourly is left in the cloud.

TS is falling after crossing KS downwards.

CS is sideways in the cloud.

Recovery will be price action getting above cloud,

and TS crossing and remaining above KS in upward gradient.

Cloud future is flat with moderate breadth.

Medium Term indication is mild negative to sideways.

FII investment, by provisional data, is Positive for the past days.
Their increased purchase, along with cross over of 200ema, may give the necessary impetus to the sentiment.

The overall mood was buoyant, with advance decline at 23 : 7 for sensex,

Sensex for 10-5-2011

Sensex closes in a Red Candle,
fails to close above the 5day EMA, and 233day EMA, after making a high above these demas.
Immediate resistances would be the
5day EMA 18527
233day EMA 18528
next level resistances at
200day EMA 18671
Fibonacci 68% at 18690
18850 at 89day EMA
18900 is a cluster of EMAs of 100day, 55day, 50day, 34day, 20day 

Supports would be at
Fibonacci 78% at 18061
377day EMA 17865
400day EMA 17770

Williams recovery from OverSold has flattened at -76.
ATR keeps falling now 304.

Day made a HigherHigh and HigherLow for 2nd day.
Volume is half of 20day average.

Ichimoku - short parameters
In negative zone. Price between TS and KS, all below the cloud, TS below KS which emerges below the cloud.
Cloud starts thinning, with a future twist and fall.
CS sideways below PA and Cloud.
In short term, cloud will offer resistance,
while a smaller range is available for move up.

Medium parameters
Twisting cloud has offered support.
Mildly positive PA being caught between rising and thickening cloud top and sideways TS, KS, with TS below KS.
CS is caught sideways in cloud below PA.

In medium term, the cloud top will offer support.

Turning sideways.

Sensex now

Sensex rode up the TS, slipped below,
bounced on the 20ema and now it is
above the TS and KS in the short param of Ichimoku, with TS remaining above KS.
CS is bullishly aligned.
Kumo is widening into future.

The falling trendline is tested again by the closing.
The 34ema, 89ema and 144ema are converged.
The emas are aligned bullish.

On the medium param, the Kumo is aligned horizontal, cloud top giving support. TS and KS are diverging, forming strength to the momentum. Price action has moved above the TS.

CS is at the cloud top, within.

KS withing cloud moving sideways.

The coming session would be interesting.