Sensex for 26-nov-2010

Sensex is resting on 100day EMA,
The blue channel is breached downwards.
The next support may be 144 day EMA, if Sensex fails to pull back from 100day EMA.
5day EMA has already crossed below 20dayEMA a week back,
now 20day EMA is approaching the 50day EMA ...
13day EMA has crossed below 34day EMA. These are bearish notations.

The Longterm ichimoku,
Price is resting on cloud bottom,
Cloud bottom may be a support, and cloud top resistance.
TS below KS, TS into cloud, CS continues below PA, KS hooking down, all bearish confirmation.

The Shortterm ichimoku,
All the indications are bearish,
The price may get resisted at cloud bottom.

Fibonacci Retracement of Sensex
shows Sensex may be supported at 19138 breaking which it can fall to 18528 17917.
The trendline is broken downwards for now, though there can be a pull back above it.

FII Selling
The net FII transaction is negative, into selling of 1208 crores.
It adds to pullout of liquidity and to negative sentiments.

BSE Advance Decline
The Overall A/D is 743 / 2203,
Except Z category, all groups are into negative, the A group in 1:5 negative ratio.

mmm ... something sounds hollow in the picture.... ... ... time to be cautious

Sensex Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Sensex has retraced upto 50% of the rise to 21108, the 19464 level closing at 19459
Further retracement may be upto 62% 19074,
or the move up can be to 19883 20117 20397 20495

The MSCI Ind Ix ETN [blue line in chart below] is falling steadily, in correlation with Sensex [red line in chart below]

and the FII are Nett in Sell mode.

The BSE smallcap index seem peaking out, in comparision to Largecap, from Diwali.
and its worth keeping an eye on it for a decline in market trend, though market is yet to reach the euphoric stage during Diwali highs.

Sensex Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Sensex can retrace to 
38.2% 20117
50%   20306
61.8% 20496
before continuing its fall, if there is weakness.

For 15-nov-2010 Sensex Daily Chart
Ichimoku Sensex Longterm shows neutral about to get support at cloud, while the shortterm trend has moved from neutral to negative, breaking the cloud. in PA, but TS & KS remain still in positive zone. CS is negative.
Cloud is positive in Longterm, but negative in shortterm.

LongTerm Trend has not been disturbed, except at very fast short levels.

The sensex may bounce up from 50ema sma, Aroon is passing neutral, with positive superlative but declining, Stoch is into sell which may stop at 20. A technical bounce is also due soon.

The Ema has been broken only on levels higher than 50ema.
Sensex is within the BolingerBand at the bottom channel, The support is at 19659, and resistance 21083

Fibonacci extensions and retracements.
There are more chances for Sensex to rise to 20491 20609 20728.
The fall will most likely be arrested at 19856.

New High in reach ...

For 1-nov-2010

Will add notes later at weekend.