Sensex for 27-6-2011

Sensex

bounced from the trend channel that we follow for a while now.
And is moving towards the pink upward longterm channel.
The EMA support was at 610days EMA.
The move will be towards 50ema and 200ema.

Ichimoku medium term
has turned negative with the kumo turnover.
The resistance would be mostly at 18295 18420 18520 18565 18730.
The bearish TS below KS is changing with both turning sideways,
but the bearishness remains, since all indicators and price are below the bearish cloud.
Shortterm parameters
are losing momentum, and is thinner.
One need to watch if this big candle move will sustain.

ATR is moving to more volatile.
Williams is about to enter the OB.
EMAs are yet to respond to the price move.
Sensex is below the converging longterm triangle.

Only when Sensex firmly closes above the 200ema and the cloud for a couple of days can one be sure of the change in trend.

Sensex for 1-6-2011

Sensex closed above 300ema, 20ema, 13ema, and is firmly settled for now in the trend lines triangle.
It was resisted at 233ema and 34ema.
Shorter averages have started flattening out, and shortest ones are looking up.
Longer averages gradual gradient is maintained.
Oscillator is at -23, at the threshold of entering the OB.
ATR, after contiunuous fall, has started moving up.
200ema is at 18601, 200sma at 18708 - these are future resistances.

Ichimoku short parameters -
Cloud falling and turning in future.
TS cross above KS, PA above both, but all below the cloud.
Makes 18622 18894 levels resistances to be crossed in shortterm positivity, in the negative picture.

Medium term parameters -
Cloud forms flat bottom of resistance, while PA has settled above TS, and facing cloud bottom 18527.
KS in cloud may be held at bottomspan.
CS moving rapidly through thick cloud.
It is mild positivity in the negative scenerio, in midterm.

Sensex for 18-5-2011

Sensex
The longterm channel line which supported earlier at 17298 and then at 17414 has supported now at 18047.
Its also in the range of 78% Fibonacci Retracement.
There can be a technical bounce,
or, if breaks the magenta channel, then next support is at
17881 ema 377day
17788 ema 400day.
The shortterm EMAs are inclined down,
The longerterm EMAs which are sideways, are showing a very marginal incline downwards.
ATR is rising, indicating increasing volatility.
Oscillator is dipping further into oversold sump.

Ichimoku -
Short term parameters -
All the indications continue to strengthen the bearish tone.
Medium term parameters -
KS has fallen into the cloud,
CS has fallen below the cloud.
This strengthens medium term negativity, which will stand reversed
when points break above the cloud,
that is, it will have both the cloud boundaries to negotiate.

Market views -
FII turnover is in Red by - 487 crores.

Sensex for 17-5-2011

Sensex -
Clear negative day that formed a shaven top red candle.
Sideways tight range points movement, forming a lower high, higher low inside day.
Short term moving averages continue to fall,
while longer term moving averages keep the slight up gradient.
It causes slow convergence.

All major medium and shortterm moving averages are above the price line, denoting bearishness,
especially the 200ema and 200sma.

Only the moving averages of days more than 300 are below the price,
showing the medium term bearishness is extending to longer term direction.

Ichimoku - shorter parameters -
Completely bearish now.
PA is below TS, and TS is below KS, and all below the cloud where spanA is already below B.
Future twist is also with a downward thinner profile turning sideways finally.
CS is sideways and negative.

In medium parameters -
cloud is resisting,
all params are in mildly bearish to bearish.
KS alone is above kumo, and is sideways, about to test support spana.

By both terms, the cloud will be immediate resistance,
and Friday's situation continues,
that changing of negative trend is only when trades above cloud convincingly,
with PA, TS, KS, Kumo in alignment.

 

But for 3, the Sensex scrips were in Red to Deep Red,

Advance Decline is 4 : 26

The Healthcare and ConsumerDurables secotors closed in Green,

the rest of the sectors are in Red.

Overall Advance Decline in BSE is 1052 : 1713 :  134, that is  3 : 5 advance : decline

FII Nett is marginal Positive -  purchase of 47 crores. [provisional data, BSE]

Sensex

Dipped below, but manages to close above 200sma, after bouncing from 34ema
Shortterm EMAs are losing momentum, while longterm EMAs are still positive.
Volatility increasing.

Oscillators in neutral.

Short term Ichimoku has turned negative yesterday with TS below KS, continues with more divergence.
Cloud top can support at 18780.
Cloud breadth increasing, while the CS dives below PA.

Mediumterm, cloud and KS are flat, while KS being in cloud,
PA fallen below TS and resting on cloud top.
CS in the cloud. Trend sideways.

Detailed analysis in the EOD post and Premarket Post for tomorrow, later.

Premarket View - 23.02.2011

Option reading index for today is (-) 5.21 down from last trading figure of (-) 1.68 suggests selling pressure. 

Ichimoku Std Param
Tenken 5388, Kijun 5489, Span A 5439, Span B 5679. Major Resistance at Span B 5679 flat. Support at Span A 5439 tested again and again. Chikou Span is trending down with all others flat. Price Close below Kijun negative. Cloud broadening indicates increase in volatility. Resistance at 5489 / Support at 5388.

Ichimoku Short Param

Tenken 5506, Kijun 5388, Span A 5447, Span B 5388. Price close below Tenken negative. Price again resisted at cloud span A for the day. Bullish cloud crossover from March 09, 2011. Resistance at 5506 / Support at 5447, 5439 & 5388

Sensex EOD 15-feb-2011 Look for crossing 20day EMA

Pink trendline crossed.
Resisted at 20day EMA.
5day EMA at 17984 still below 20day EMA at 18313.
20day EMA at 18313 still below 50day EMA at 18914.
Oscillator into neutral zone.
50day EMA at 18914 remains above 200day EMA at 18610.

Thinning cloud in long and mid terms.
Longterm - still negative, with KS forming resistance at 18506, and TS support at 17881.
Midterm - cloud bottom will be first resistance at 18810, with KS forming support at 17881.

Sensex EOD 14-feb-2011

At the trendline, after bouncing from 500day EMA.
Took support on TS longterm.
Pink Trendline may act a resistance.

Sensex for 3-jan-2011

Sensex moves into clear channel, with 4 positive days and 3 green days.
Longterm ichimoku is positive in Price above cloud, TS, KS and CS above price and cloud.
Neutral with positive bias in TS attempting the cloud top.
Negativity will reduce when the upward hooking KS moves into, and then out of the cloud.
Future cloud turned bearish with thin spread.
Shortterm Ichimoku is in positive zone, with price above TS above KS all above Cloud,
and CS above price, with future cloud move to widening bullishness.
EMAs are in positive order, all hooking up.
Daily candles, ever since the double touching the 144dema, maintain positive bias
in 3 up, 1 or more sideways moves.
This may make a few days sideways possible after the 4 higherhigh higherlow days.
Oscillator is in overbought, losing relevance by continuity.
ATR fall shows lack of volatility.

The Weekly chart shows upward bias, with 2 corrections, each time supported at 38% or 50%.
It is positive sign.

Monthly chart shows positive trend again.
The green candles dominate reds by 2 : 1.
The move has maintained above 5month Low EMA, almost supported at EMAs, and closes above the High EMA.
Fibonacci levels are well above the 78%, making the recent high within reach, and a new high a possibility.
Would it move to 124% at 22407 and if so, when ...
Or, will it be folding back to another consolidation at 19020 18374 17727 ...

Sensex for 30-dec-2010

Sensex closed on a very positive green candle, with least wicks,
above Blue channel bottom, leaving 20k mark way behind.
All EMAs and SMAs of important days crossed to positive side.
Longterm ichimoku, the price is at the cloud top, with a tendency to emerge out to positive side,
TS remains above KS.
Future cloud remains bearish and volatile.

Shortterm ichimoku remains positive, with PA above TS and both above KS, with KS hooking up.
And, all 3 above cloud, which turns future positive.
As of now, the existing positiveness in sensex stands more confirmed.

Sensex for 28-12-2010

Sensex remains in the blue channel, maintaining the sideways move.
8day ema moves above 34d ema.
Longterm action is in the cloud and neutral.
Shortterm move is neutral and above cloud.
Depth of the cloud is thinning out.
Oscillator has moved into overbought zone.
Immediate volatility has declined.
Supports are at every EMA level, channel level and clouds.

Sensex for 24-dec-2010

Sensex closed below 20000.
Has been moving sideways, with tighter candle bodies.
Most of the close is below opening.
Lesser volume, holidays, 20k, expiry, making their impacts.

Sensex for 23-dec-2010

Sensex with a positive gradient, struggles at 20000

Sensex for 22-dec-2010

Sensex has closed above 20000,
broken above the Cyan channel, into the Blue channel.
Opened above 34dema and is now above all important EMAs.
5dema has moved above 20dema, and
20dema is moving above 50dema.
Longterm ichi, price has moved above KS, though still in the cloud. PA is above CS.
TS turning up near the cloud bottom.
Shortterm ichi turns positive with the price closing above the cloud, with support on TS.
KS may get support on cloud bottom.
Cloud in future is turning positive and expanding.

If this momentum is maintained, a clear base may be built for positive development.
Lets see.

Sensex for 21-dec-2010

Sensex continues in the same slow sideways move,
and today it closed above 34dEMA.
The clouds are thinner on both params, and the action continues within the cloud.

Sensex for 20-dec-2010

Sensex closed above all important EMAs.
It got resisted at BlueChannel Bottom, and is at the juncture of Cyan, Blue.
The bottom seems to be protected at 144dEMA.
while the top glass ceiling seems to be the 20000 mark.

Longterm Ichimoku maintains the sideways neutral area, with TS and KS parallel eitherside of the price, all within the cloud, which has also turned sideways, with a future twist.
Shortterm Ichimoku is also in neutral area.

The immediate resitance may be at the cloud tops, and support at cloud bottoms.

Sensex for 16-dec-2010

Sensex is moving within the channels BlueBottom, RedBottom, and Cyan,
above 89dEMA, crossing across 13dEMA, 20dEMA, 50dEMA and 5dEMA,

Ichimoku longterm continues to be neutral, making sideways move.
Shortterm ichimoku is supported at cloud bottom.
The longterm cloud will be the holder for now.

Sensex for 15-dec-2010

The BlueChannel bottom is resisting the upmove, while 13dEMA has supported the open.
Sensex has to cross the crucial 50dEMA and 20dEMA to get good upmove.
Volatility has dropped.

Longterm ichimoku is still in neutral position. while
shortterm is moving out of negative to neutral area.

Sensex for 14-dec-2010

Sensex :
Sensex is stuck between 8dEMA and 89dEMA, closing at 13dEMA, after supported at 100dEMA,
above 5dEMA, below 20dEMA and 50dEMA.
The negative crossover of 20 /50 dEMA remains.
Oscillator is bouncing off in neutral zone without entering OverSold.

Sensex is caught between the BlueChannel Bottom and RedChannel Bottom.
The Cyan Channel may need to watched for the diagonal move downward, if 144dEMA breaks [144dEMA has held the support twice now.]

Ichimoku longterm is neutral, with slight negative bias.
Sideways parallel moves of TS KS with negative KS on TS.
PA in cloud channelled in KS TS.
Cloud borders may hold sensex for now.
Ichimoku shortterm is in bear zone, the cloud bottom may form a resistance.
Negative TS KS crossover has not resolved, while the PA is below the CS.

Sensex for 10-dec-2010

Sensex has broken thro and fallen below the 100dEMA, the next support would be at 144dEMA 18981, and resistance at 100dEMA 19384.
Its newsdriven & FII selling panic falls, which puts a confusion if it is time to buy in dips, and if so, when ...
The Retracements are going towards the earlier swing low before the meteoric rise.
May be this correction will set the market back on good foundation, to be built to recent and new highs on a steadier and confirmed growth, than this past 3 months motley FII inflow driven rise without proper funda.

Ichimoku is turning from neutral to bearish by the price breaking down below the cloud.
The volatility remains high.
Oscillators are falling towards entering OverSold area, the beginning of being in neg zone.

The RedChannel bottom may offer support, where lies the 144dEMA also.