Nov 30, 2010
Technical Levels for 1-dec-2010 .Nifty Future..
Technical Levels for 1-dec-2010 ...: "Levels for Nifty Future"
Sensex for 1-dec-2010
Sensex moved up from the OverSold status,
The day has been volatile,
The opening was at 89day EMA,
The upmove was resisted at Bluechannel bottom,
and closed above 89day EMA & , 5day EMA, nearer to 55dayEMA,
20day EMA remains above 50day EMA sideways.
Longterm cloud holds the price, with a breadth.
Price closed at TS, and KS has turned sideways,
so it is continuation of neutral position in longterm.
with a future negativeness in cloud.
Shortterm cloud is still negative,
while the price is above TS.
Better stability when sensex moves into BlueChannel.
Support is at 19299 19245 18912 18610
Resitance is at 20288 20391 20447
The day has been volatile,
The opening was at 89day EMA,
The upmove was resisted at Bluechannel bottom,
and closed above 89day EMA & , 5day EMA, nearer to 55dayEMA,
20day EMA remains above 50day EMA sideways.
Longterm cloud holds the price, with a breadth.
Price closed at TS, and KS has turned sideways,
so it is continuation of neutral position in longterm.
with a future negativeness in cloud.
Shortterm cloud is still negative,
while the price is above TS.
Better stability when sensex moves into BlueChannel.
Support is at 19299 19245 18912 18610
Resitance is at 20288 20391 20447
Nifty Intraday Update
It is really surprising to see the no of posts today. It is crossing 100 and this is post no.101. Quite an achievement considering inactive and lazy nature of me. Thanks to all who encouraged me to actively blog my views. The journey in a short span has thought me how to keep focus & commitment to the cause. Thanks once again to each and every one.
Key nifty levels are 5886, 5950 on the upside and 5782, 5742 on the downside. This is purely based on Gann Square Nine. Manage your positions taking overall view.
Premarket View - 30.11.2010
Option reading index is (-) 3.07 which is rising from last trading day figure of -0.13 indicating selling may be back again. The figure is high out of the normal zone and hence expect enhanced volatility reaching 2 std deviation.
Nov 29, 2010
Technical Levels: Technical Levels for 30-nov-2010 Nifty Future
Technical Levels: Technical Levels for 30-nov-2010 Nifty Future: "Technical Levels for Nifty Future"
Technical Levels: Technical Levels for 30-nov-2010 Sensex
Technical Levels: Technical Levels for 30-nov-2010 Sensex: "Technical Levels for sensex on 30-11-2010"
Sensex for 30-nov-2010
Sensex opened about previous day's close,
crossed above the 100day EMA,
and closed at 89day EMA.
William's hooks about trying to emerge from OverSold area.
ATR exhibits high volatility.
The 20day EMA is still above 50day EMA, not losing to negativity.
Shotterm Ichimoku shows flattening of KS, PA ending above TS, and CS hooking up.
Future cloud thickens.
Longterm Ichimoku price is back into the cloud, reclaiming neutral status, with TS and KS turning sideways.
The immediate support is at 19412 and resistance at 20252
crossed above the 100day EMA,
and closed at 89day EMA.
William's hooks about trying to emerge from OverSold area.
ATR exhibits high volatility.
The 20day EMA is still above 50day EMA, not losing to negativity.
Shotterm Ichimoku shows flattening of KS, PA ending above TS, and CS hooking up.
Future cloud thickens.
Longterm Ichimoku price is back into the cloud, reclaiming neutral status, with TS and KS turning sideways.
The immediate support is at 19412 and resistance at 20252
Premarket View - 29.11.2010
Option reading index is (-) 0.13 which is down from last trading day figure of 0.74 indicating buying support at lower levels. The figure is within the normal zone and hence expected volatility is within one Std Deviation.
As observed earlier on Premarket View 25.11.2010,(click to see the post Premarket View 25.11.2010), short term uptrend is truncated and nifty is in downtrend. On 26/11, Nifty touched 5690 before rallying back to 5700 levels and closed at 5752. Oscillators are in neutral mode and TRIX in weekly time frame indicates selling pressure to continue for some more time.
Also Fundamentally sentiments are affected due to war cry on the korean peninsula, 2G & housing scams, uncertain political position, rise in USD etc.,
It is better to trade lightly and hold cash to pick some fundamentally strong companies for long term investment.
Nov 28, 2010
Nov 27, 2010
Sensex Trend Chart of LiveChart
Sensex Trend, after being Up for 2 days after Diwali, went Sidways few days, and, is down since Nov 14th.
Nifty with Excessive Growth, gets the trimming
This chart of Daily Nifty from 2009 June is channel drawn to deviation parameters.
When we look at the channels, it looks like
the Red Channel is what that is, the Overgrowth Zone, which crumbles, and gets trimmed.
The Green Band is the normal growth.
The Blue Band is the Acceptable Growth.
The Grey Band forms news or sentiment based momentary blips and dips, like the Satyam fiasco, Dubai crisis, etc.
Food for thought, for the weekend ... :)
Have also shown the Fibonacci levels from the all time low to present [recent] high.
Also are the established daily EMAs of 100, 144, 200, for a guidance on where the price has travelled.
When we look at the channels, it looks like
the Red Channel is what that is, the Overgrowth Zone, which crumbles, and gets trimmed.
The Green Band is the normal growth.
The Blue Band is the Acceptable Growth.
The Grey Band forms news or sentiment based momentary blips and dips, like the Satyam fiasco, Dubai crisis, etc.
Food for thought, for the weekend ... :)
Have also shown the Fibonacci levels from the all time low to present [recent] high.
Also are the established daily EMAs of 100, 144, 200, for a guidance on where the price has travelled.
Nifty EOD 26.11.2010
From yesterday net was disconnected and hence could post Premarket view for today.
Market is in total panic because of current scam. The implications of this cannot be easily gauged as still news flow is on. It will take some more time to make fair assessment. Till then probably market will be on a roller coaster ride.. Whatever it be, it is time to pick good companies based on fundamentals with good growth prospects. Will try later for posting of some fundamental picks for long term.
Technically, Ichimoku charts daily (24.11.2010) has given long term bearish outlook with bearish crossover and today action seems to be confirming it more. Let us see 26.11.2010 eod chart later to assess where do nifty stand.
Market is in total panic because of current scam. The implications of this cannot be easily gauged as still news flow is on. It will take some more time to make fair assessment. Till then probably market will be on a roller coaster ride.. Whatever it be, it is time to pick good companies based on fundamentals with good growth prospects. Will try later for posting of some fundamental picks for long term.
Technically, Ichimoku charts daily (24.11.2010) has given long term bearish outlook with bearish crossover and today action seems to be confirming it more. Let us see 26.11.2010 eod chart later to assess where do nifty stand.
For those interested in astrology, click here Astro View of Nifty
Nov 26, 2010
Technical Levels: Technical Levels for 29-nov-2010 Sensex
Technical Levels: Technical Levels for 29-nov-2010 Sensex: "Technical Levels for Sensex"
Sensex on 26-nov-2010
Sensex slide from the height of Nov 1st week is non-stop, steep.
Ichimoku longterm chart also confirms now the bearishness, which would revert only on emerging convincingly above the Kumo. TS below KS, both hooking down into cloud. Cloud tendency to turnover,
price opening below the cloud, finding difficulty at cloud bottom attemp, falling and closing below the cloud,
The shortterm ichimoku is fully bearish with all indicators deep in red interpretation.
From the TrendChannel and Lines perception, the RedChannel bottom is still a support.
From the EMA perspective, Sensex opened at 100day EMA, has fallen low and bounced from the 144day EMA, on higher side found resistance at 89day EMA and closed in between.
The support would be the 144EMA and after that the major 200day EMA.
20day EMA is declining towards 50day EMA, but yet to cross, and when crossed it would imply intermediate bearishness confirmation.
Oscillators - Williams continues to be in OverBought zone, and such extended stay would only confirm the bearishness trend.
ATR shows greater volatility.
The major chances are a fall to the 200day EMA, which is at 18394 now,
where Sensex may bounce back.
The Advance Decline Ratio of Sensex today is 1 : 4
FII Selling continues. And bad news and sentiments continues, from the market perspective.
The intraday recovery was lost at end of day.
HA candles exhibit the trend very clearly continuously negative. The candle tops are clean shaven eversince the drop started.
Ichimoku longterm chart also confirms now the bearishness, which would revert only on emerging convincingly above the Kumo. TS below KS, both hooking down into cloud. Cloud tendency to turnover,
price opening below the cloud, finding difficulty at cloud bottom attemp, falling and closing below the cloud,
The shortterm ichimoku is fully bearish with all indicators deep in red interpretation.
From the TrendChannel and Lines perception, the RedChannel bottom is still a support.
From the EMA perspective, Sensex opened at 100day EMA, has fallen low and bounced from the 144day EMA, on higher side found resistance at 89day EMA and closed in between.
The support would be the 144EMA and after that the major 200day EMA.
20day EMA is declining towards 50day EMA, but yet to cross, and when crossed it would imply intermediate bearishness confirmation.
Oscillators - Williams continues to be in OverBought zone, and such extended stay would only confirm the bearishness trend.
ATR shows greater volatility.
The major chances are a fall to the 200day EMA, which is at 18394 now,
where Sensex may bounce back.
The intraday recovery was lost at end of day.
HA candles exhibit the trend very clearly continuously negative. The candle tops are clean shaven eversince the drop started.
Nifty index with EMAs, Fibonacci and channel
The Nifty Future is at 100day EMA.
EMA Fibonacci
Resistance 6000 6005 5845 4962 6000 6128
Support 5520 5739 5585 5555
Williams is in OverSold, but hooked down.
ForceIndex is still moving downwards.
Both the indicators are into negative zone after remaining frozen in OverBought to be confirming the bull trend.
The channel from recent high is continuous parallel and undisturbed, with almost uniform bars, mostly red ones.
EMA Fibonacci
Resistance 6000 6005 5845 4962 6000 6128
Support 5520 5739 5585 5555
Williams is in OverSold, but hooked down.
ForceIndex is still moving downwards.
Both the indicators are into negative zone after remaining frozen in OverBought to be confirming the bull trend.
The channel from recent high is continuous parallel and undisturbed, with almost uniform bars, mostly red ones.
Nov 25, 2010
Sensex for 26-nov-2010
Sensex is resting on 100day EMA,
The blue channel is breached downwards.
The next support may be 144 day EMA, if Sensex fails to pull back from 100day EMA.
5day EMA has already crossed below 20dayEMA a week back,
now 20day EMA is approaching the 50day EMA ...
13day EMA has crossed below 34day EMA. These are bearish notations.
The Longterm ichimoku,
Price is resting on cloud bottom,
Cloud bottom may be a support, and cloud top resistance.
TS below KS, TS into cloud, CS continues below PA, KS hooking down, all bearish confirmation.
The Shortterm ichimoku,
All the indications are bearish,
The price may get resisted at cloud bottom.
Fibonacci Retracement of Sensex
shows Sensex may be supported at 19138 breaking which it can fall to 18528 17917.
The trendline is broken downwards for now, though there can be a pull back above it.
FII Selling
The net FII transaction is negative, into selling of 1208 crores.
It adds to pullout of liquidity and to negative sentiments.
BSE Advance Decline
The Overall A/D is 743 / 2203,
Except Z category, all groups are into negative, the A group in 1:5 negative ratio.
mmm ... something sounds hollow in the picture.... ... ... time to be cautious
The blue channel is breached downwards.
The next support may be 144 day EMA, if Sensex fails to pull back from 100day EMA.
5day EMA has already crossed below 20dayEMA a week back,
now 20day EMA is approaching the 50day EMA ...
13day EMA has crossed below 34day EMA. These are bearish notations.
The Longterm ichimoku,
Price is resting on cloud bottom,
Cloud bottom may be a support, and cloud top resistance.
TS below KS, TS into cloud, CS continues below PA, KS hooking down, all bearish confirmation.
The Shortterm ichimoku,
All the indications are bearish,
The price may get resisted at cloud bottom.
shows Sensex may be supported at 19138 breaking which it can fall to 18528 17917.
The trendline is broken downwards for now, though there can be a pull back above it.
The net FII transaction is negative, into selling of 1208 crores.
It adds to pullout of liquidity and to negative sentiments.
The Overall A/D is 743 / 2203,
Except Z category, all groups are into negative, the A group in 1:5 negative ratio.
Premarket View - 25.11.2010
Option reading index is positive 0.36 which is down from last trading day figure of 1.65 indicating selling pressure at higher levels. The figure is within the normal zone and hence expected volatility is within 1 Std Deviation.
Bearish crossover of clouds in standard param ichimoku nifty chart - an indication of start of medium term downtrend...??
Bearish crossover of TS, KS from above and Oscillators in neutral mode
Short term ichimoku indicates the uptrend is getting truncated with range bound movement in the band of 5800 to 6000.
Trade with Caution
Bearish crossover of clouds in standard param ichimoku nifty chart - an indication of start of medium term downtrend...??
Bearish crossover of TS, KS from above and Oscillators in neutral mode
Short term ichimoku indicates the uptrend is getting truncated with range bound movement in the band of 5800 to 6000.
Trade with Caution
Sensex Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Sensex has retraced upto 50% of the rise to 21108, the 19464 level closing at 19459
Further retracement may be upto 62% 19074,
or the move up can be to 19883 20117 20397 20495
The MSCI Ind Ix ETN [blue line in chart below] is falling steadily, in correlation with Sensex [red line in chart below]
and the FII are Nett in Sell mode.
The BSE smallcap index seem peaking out, in comparision to Largecap, from Diwali.
and its worth keeping an eye on it for a decline in market trend, though market is yet to reach the euphoric stage during Diwali highs.
Further retracement may be upto 62% 19074,
or the move up can be to 19883 20117 20397 20495
and its worth keeping an eye on it for a decline in market trend, though market is yet to reach the euphoric stage during Diwali highs.
Nov 24, 2010
Sensex at EOD 24-nov-2010 for 25-nov-2010
Sensex finds support at Cloud bottom, 100day EMA and closes at 89day EMA.
The Blue channel bottom is tried, and if broken price can reach Red channel bottom.
The next support is at 100day EMA, 144 day EMA, and
resistance at 55day EMA and 50day EMA.
Being in cloud, the neutral stance is established.
A bounce to cloud top or Blue channel top is possible.
TS has fallen below KS, and both rest on cloud top.
Shortterm Kumo is twisting and thinning out.
Big volatility and oscillator in OverSold area.
Expiry day would see more volatility with extremely fast moves mixed with no moves.
The Blue channel bottom is tried, and if broken price can reach Red channel bottom.
The next support is at 100day EMA, 144 day EMA, and
resistance at 55day EMA and 50day EMA.
Being in cloud, the neutral stance is established.
A bounce to cloud top or Blue channel top is possible.
TS has fallen below KS, and both rest on cloud top.
Shortterm Kumo is twisting and thinning out.
Big volatility and oscillator in OverSold area.
Expiry day would see more volatility with extremely fast moves mixed with no moves.
Premarket View - 24.11.2010
Option reading index is positive 1.65 which is down from last trading day figure of -4.03 indicating buying support. Again the figure is very high changing from negative -4.03 to positive 1.65 which means enhanced volatility with swing to 1.5 Std Deviation.
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